Initiative and Flat-Footed


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Chemlak wrote:

Surprise is not being aware that an attack may come. Flat-footed before acting is reaction speed and luck.

...

Reaction speed and luck apply to every attack throughout combat. Yet flat footed doesn't apply every round, therefore, flat footed doesn't equal reaction speed and luck. Reaction speed is better handled by initiative, and luck handled by a d20.

What you need to clarify is "What is special about the first round of combat that doesn't apply to latter rounds, in IC terms?"


DM_Blake wrote:

The rules say that combat starts when the GM says it does.

Technically, combat could start at the moment your character wakes up in his bed in town. Roll for initiative and go about your morning business, heck, your entire daily business, in 6-second increments, round by round. Hundreds of rounds later your party finally leaves town, and a few thousand rounds later you have your first encounter of the day. Etc.

That would be silly. And tedious.

Most GMs who aren't idiots and who aren't forum trolls will probably start each combat at the precise moment when one side or the other is going to do something. Starting it later is just silly - "OK, I know the troll has hit you seven times already, but now we're going to start combat; everyone roll for initiative!" makes no sense. Starting it earlier also makes no sense - we might as well just roll initiative once each morning when we wake up.

So the clever GM (or even the ordinary, average, not-an-idiot GM) will simply begin combat at the precise moment when something combat-ish starts to happen.

So I still don't see the problem.

As starting a combat style is impossible out of combat, does that mean the GM should start combat when the monk tries to enter his style stance?


tchrman35 wrote:


So you're saying that if Player 1 decides to toss a magic missile in BBEG's face while BBEG is monologuing, in the middle of a word, he's not going to be surprised?

I have yet to meet a GM who allows that. Monologues are holy to most GMs.


Quote:
What you need to clarify is "What is special about the first round of combat that doesn't apply to latter rounds, in IC terms?"

The answer is there is always surprise, initiative decides who acts first so it also decides whose perception check succeeded first. If the Orc has an initiative of 15 and you have an initiative of 10 then the enemy spotted you first and thus has the advantage that round. Even if you both rounded the corner and bumped into each other. The signal enemy attack reached the brain of one combatant first.


And if everyone got spotted far enough away that everyone had to move up before being in attack range? What then?

Further, you didn't answer the question, "What IC event equals start of combat?"


Is it me or are people mixing up surprise with being flat footed before your first initiative?
Being FF at the start of combat has nothing to do with surprise, surprise only occurs when you are unaware of the other party or they are unaware of you and provides half a turn when some can act and some can't.

If everyone has to move to get into combat then everyone has had an initiative so no one is FF.

If BBEG chucks a spell at you mid conversation there is no surprise you are aware of each other. The combat starts when he(or anyone else present) declares his intent to take offensive action. If you beat his initiative, you see him twitch, draw your sword and t&!$ him before he's ready. If you are slower "Gosh wish this guy would shut up and get on with it, BORING! Hey why's he doing that with his fingers?...." ZAP!

It's as if a combat round starts like playing slaps when you were a kid.
You all start with your hands held palm together, with your finger tips touching your opponents. You know he's going to try and slap your hands. He knows you are going to try and slap his. SLAAAP! Damn how did he beat me?

After that you just take turns slapping each other.


Flat footed basically translates in my mind as the brief second transitioning from battle ready (default stance for not surprised combatants) to combat engaged.

Initiative is basically your reaction speed.

After round 1 there is no flat footed because there is a constant flow of blows coming and going.

Basically:
Initiative dictates initial reaction time to the start of hostilities.
If someone be acts before you CAN react (surprise, before your first action, etc) it means you didn't yet have time to raise your defence. Hence flat footed.

After the beginning of the combat, initiative is relegated to a tool to keep track of time.

It's not like each round you drop your of fence and defence and start over again.


There isn't a constant flow of blows though as there is repositioning and moving from one target to the next and other similar things happening between attacks.

As for the slaps example, my experience with slaps supports my position, not yours. If anything, the first slap was near always the easiest to avoid.

Sovereign Court

GM DarkLightHitomi wrote:
And if everyone got spotted far enough away that everyone had to move up before being in attack range? What then?

Then you start the combat - roll initiative - and the characters spend a round or three getting into range. (And next time they'll probably bring longbows. It's freakishly hard to spot anything outside of max longbow range.)


GM DarkLightHitomi wrote:

There isn't a constant flow of blows though as there is repositioning and moving from one target to the next and other similar things happening between attacks.

As for the slaps example, my experience with slaps supports my position, not yours. If anything, the first slap was near always the easiest to avoid.

There is a constant flow of actions, in order, for practical convenience. Even not doing anything i.e. holding your initiative is an action in game terms.

Well when I played slaps you usually tried to make someone pull away a couple of times before you actually tried to slap them. You know by twitching your hands slightly apart ..but not all the way. So you could laugh at them and call them chicken making it easier to catch them out later.

I presume though you understood the point I was making?


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GM DarkLightHitomi wrote:
Komoda wrote:
The problem with your idea of just saying, "combat on" to make you "aware" is that it takes away from the classes (Ninja, Rogue) that are built around catching you flat-footed.
Incorrect. The issue we are talking about hapoens once in a combat. Further, rogues and similar can get flat footed in many other ways that actually make sense and are associated mechanics. Rogues rely on stealth, tricks, and flanking, which means they have plenty of ways of dispatching foes without relying entirely on the first round of combat (after all, what woukd they do when out numbered otherwise?).

You are incorrect about me being incorrect. Clearly it takes away from the classes, as I stated. It also clearly is not the only way to become flat-footed, but it is one of the many ways, and often one of the easiest ways to catch an enemy in that manner.

Mechanically, the system works. It isn't perfect. It does not reflect real life as a mirror. No game system does.

It doesn't matter that you cannot imagine a thematic scenario that fits the system to your satisfaction. The system is in place either way. It adds a level of uncertainty which is what I imagine the designers were looking for.

Falling damage, critical hits, disease, fear, and the fact that a character can fight for 20 hours without getting tired also fail to mirror real life equivalents of the same.

Sczarni

Jakub Koprowski wrote:


Roll for Initiative, my roll is 14, goblin roll 3. So i act first. Is that goblin Flat-Footed in this round?

Yes.


Charon's Little Helper wrote:
GM DarkLightHitomi wrote:
And if everyone got spotted far enough away that everyone had to move up before being in attack range? What then?
Then you start the combat - roll initiative - and the characters spend a round or three getting into range. (And next time they'll probably bring longbows. It's freakishly hard to spot anything outside of max longbow range.)

My point exactly. In this case the first strike doesn't catch them flat footed. This is also a more common situation in games I play.


@Komoda
Changing something that rarely happens won't have a significant impact.

Besides, as I stated previously, the GM starting combat is the only factor that effects this. Accordingly, in my games this comes up rarely because it only happens during an ambush or similar when the characters didn't expect combat before the round it started. Rogues never have a problem because they sneak around or flank and manage to usually get their bonus.


GM DarkLightHitomi wrote:
My point exactly. In this case the first strike doesn't catch them flat footed. This is also a more common situation in games I play.
CountofUndolpho wrote:
If everyone has to move to get into combat then everyone has had an initiative so no one is FF.

It's a different case.

GM DarkLightHitomi wrote:
..Besides, as I stated previously, the GM starting combat is the only factor that effects this....

The GM starting combat isn't an arbitrary decision made for his own convenience, a GM calls for Initiatives when a PC or NPC declares her intent to initiate an (potentially) offensive action. It's that declaration that "starts" combat.

Improved Initiative, Combat Reflexes, Uncanny Dodge, Thief, Barbarian etc all function specifically with this rule, by House Ruling it out you change numerous classes and Feats. It's your groups choice but I'd suggest you look at all the things it takes away from before you decide.


Actually, 3.5 never had that, thus it clearly isn't important to the characters.

Besides, you might define the start of combat as when a character declares such an action, but that isn't in the rules.

Further, all those feats and what not are based on flat footed, not the first round of combat. Flat footed is normally an associated mechanic, but in this case it isn't. This case is also a corner case for flat footed, which most of the time has nothing to do with the start of combat.


Something else I noticed, flat footed is also said to be before a character has taken any actions in a combat, but drawing a weapon, taking a defensive stance, or charging towards foes, are all actions directly related to combat and often taken before the first metagame aspect of a combat round.

Sovereign Court

GM DarkLightHitomi wrote:
Charon's Little Helper wrote:
GM DarkLightHitomi wrote:
And if everyone got spotted far enough away that everyone had to move up before being in attack range? What then?
Then you start the combat - roll initiative - and the characters spend a round or three getting into range. (And next time they'll probably bring longbows. It's freakishly hard to spot anything outside of max longbow range.)
My point exactly. In this case the first strike doesn't catch them flat footed. This is also a more common situation in games I play.

I don't understand your issue with the current system then. (Nor why your group doesn't pack longbows to plink away as their opposition closes. :P)


My issues is that too many GMs I play under don't start combat, no matter what, until the first strike, not even in the above example. Most of the time if we draw weapons and move up, that is assumed to be out of combat.

Sovereign Court

GM DarkLightHitomi wrote:
My issues is that too many GMs I play under don't start combat, no matter what, until the first strike, not even in the above example. Most of the time if we draw weapons and move up, that is assumed to be out of combat.

So the issue is with your GMs. Well - you can force the issue by using extremely long-ranged spells or getting a longbow yourself and start plinking away at extreme range.


Example, recently our group spotted an npc group digging around. They were goblins and such. My character moved towards them stated that she was expecting trouble but was going to give them a chance to just talk (even evil beings will trade for the right price), but they spotted us, drew weapons and then combat started with their first attack.

Thus expecting trouble, and them spending actions to communicate, move into position, and draw weapons (thus informing us of their intent to fight) didn't matter because that was all considered prior to combat.


GM DarkLightHitomi wrote:

Actually, 3.5 never had that, thus it clearly isn't important to the characters.

Besides, you might define the start of combat as when a character declares such an action, but that isn't in the rules.

This isn't 3.5 and the rules don't make sense if you count combat starting with the first blow I mean how do you know who strikes the first blow?

My group has been coming to terms with when to roll initiative over the last year or two after we realised we were getting it wrong. A couple of the GMs still find it hard to work out. The usual mistake is that, as you say, combat begins with the first blow. We had combat starting on an initiating characters initiative roll regardless of whether he had the highest one. It just meant we never used improved initiative or uncanny dodge or combat expertise (to AoO when FF) because they were pointless.

The rules both 3.5 and PFRPG state

CRB wrote:
At the start of a battle, each combatant makes an initiative check.
Does the "battle" start with the first blow? If so then why go on to state
CRB wrote:
Characters act in order, counting down from the highest result to the lowest

.

In your Goblins and such example. If you had dropped into rounds/initiative order as soon as you had spotted them just think of the differences. All of a sudden the goblins Perception penalty and Improved initiative becomes relevant. Do they have the movement to reach you in one round? do they scatter before you get to them? will your Barbarian hare past you with his improved speed and better initiative to get base to base. Or will you be still walking forward with your hands raised when 3 goblins with drawn sword reach you.

You can't play the opening moves without initiative being rolled otherwise speed, range, whether your weapon is drawn etc. just doesn't make a difference or at best an arbitrary one decided by your GM.


Also it was in 3.5 see Hypertext d20 SRD

Edit: #1 in the 3.5 "How combat works" section is "Each combatant starts out flat-footed. Once a combatant acts, he or she is no longer flat-footed."


Exactly my point.

Though I never heard of this rule in 3.5, guess it got missed (might have been changed or errata'd, need to recheck my book.).


Yeah, it sounds like your groups are not really using all the rules, not that there is a problem with the rules.

I find that most common with terrain. I have played in far to many games where the world is only a flat field with some walls.


We had a great use of flat footed/initiative while you know the other guy is there come up once.

A villain we had defeated and who had escaped later returned to force us to work for him in gaining some Mcguffin. The bad guy took a friendly PC hostage. So our party is standing there, axes and swords in hand, bows aimed at the villain, spells ready to be cast. Villain has the helpless and tied up NPC with a knife to her throat, ready to coup de grace.

While the groups were arguing, our cold sniper archer quietly says "I shoot at the villains head with a called shot." Initiative is rolled. Archer comes first in play.

The Sniper rolls a flipping natural 20! Confirms. Does somewhere in the neighborhood of 40 damage. Staggers and sickens the bad guy (which means that coup de grace is out as it's a full round action and being staggered ruins that plan.) as well as doing some Cha damage

So while the baddie has an arrow sticking out of his forehead, another party goer higher in initiative then the villain goes and lands a killing blow, saving the NPC.


GM DarkLightHitomi wrote:
Exactly my point.

What is? or are we playing riddles?


CountofUndolpho wrote:

...

This isn't 3.5 and the rules don't make sense if you count combat starting with the first blow I mean how do you know who strikes the first blow?
My group has been coming to terms with when to roll initiative over the last year or two after we realised we were getting it wrong. A couple of the GMs still find it hard to work out.

...

In your Goblins and such example. If you had dropped into rounds/initiative order as soon as you had spotted them just think of the differences. All of a sudden the goblins Perception penalty and Improved initiative becomes relevant. Do they have the movement to reach you in one round? do they scatter before you get to them? will your Barbarian hare past you with his improved speed and better initiative to get base to base. Or will you be still walking forward with your hands raised when 3 goblins with drawn sword reach you.

You can't play the opening moves without initiative being rolled otherwise speed, range, whether your weapon is drawn etc. just doesn't make a difference or at best an arbitrary one decided by your GM.

This is my point, only said better and more clearly.


Flat-Footed can mean mostly 3 things in D&D/PF:

Unawareness: You are unaware of an incoming enemy or attack. You may be completly unaware of a party of rogues in hiding or only unaware of a single rogue/invisible mage/trap/wtv.

Can't move porperly: While you are climbing, walking on a rope bridge, unbalanced over an icy floor, basically anythings that makes you lose your Dex bonus to AC.

Has Not Acted Yet On This Combat, aka H.N.A.Y.O.T.C.

OR

Has, On This Combat, Acted, Not Yet, aka H.O.T.C.A.N.Y.: This is where things get confusing. By RAW, it's simple, if you haven't acted yet on this combat, you are flat-footed, the end. This is supposed to have something to do with awareness, if you haven't acted yet is because you're still sizing up the combat, "processing" if you will, and hasn't decided yet what you're going to do, or you would have done it by now (with the exception of Ready or Delay actions). Normaly, if you are aware that a combat has started but hasn't acted yet, it means you're "hotcany", which means you're semi-unaware of the combat and flat-footed until you act.

Now, in a boxing match where, before the bell rings, both fighters are aware of the combat, both waiting for it to start, ready to act, then even if one start/acts before the other, the other fighter should not be flat-footed.

In situations like this, where, let's say two groups of enemies are facing each other, all ready to fire arrows at each other if their captain gives the order or if somebody fires the first shot, in this case it's best to consider as if the combat has already started. Nobody is flat-footed anymore, everybody's turn has come and they all used it to ready or delay their actions. If somebody deceides to take a full round action at their turn, then everybody else gets to shoot their arrows before the guy does his full round action.

Considering this, if you're about to act for the first time in the combat and decides to ready or delay your action, you should no longer be flat-footed, because at the time you made de decision to postpone your action you were already ready to act and no longer flat-footed.


One of the definitons of Flat-Footed says:

"Flat-Footed: At the start of a battle, before you have had a chance to act (specifically, before your first regular turn in the initiative order), you are flat-footed. You can't use your Dexterity bonus to AC (if any) while flat-footed. Barbarians and rogues of high enough level have the uncanny dodge extraordinary ability, which means that they cannot be caught flat-footed. Characters with uncanny dodge retain their Dexterity bonus to their AC and can make attacks of opportunity before they have acted in the first round of combat. A flat-footed character can't make attacks of opportunity, unless he has the Combat Reflexes feat."

I think that means that you are not flat-footed after you Delay your first action in combat, even though Delay is a noaction, because when your first regular turn arrived you were already "in control" of your actions, able to make the choice of Delaying your turn and also already able to react normaly to attacks.

Grand Lodge

Pathfinder Adventure, Rulebook Subscriber

That sounds fair to me, considering the additional statement calling it out as 'your first regular turn', of which your delayed turn would not be.


Kchaka
You are forgetting one very important thing, RAW doesn't say when combat starts. That is left to the GM.

When the GM decides to start combat affects alot of things including whether most of the things complained about in this thread actually happen or not.


Well, we must also comprehend that there can be all kinds of different enconters and as such it would be very hard for the Devs to write a rule telling preciselly when each of them should start. "Unfortunally", some things are better left for common sense and democracy, and in this case they must be.

I think there should be a distinction between something like Encounters and Combat. If your character is walking on the street and notices he's beeing followed by someone, that's an Encounter, no combat is taking place. Even though you rolled perception, the fact that you'll be flat-footed shortly after your perception check is irrelevant, since there'll be no combat and no surprise round. Combat will only start if one of you decides to attack, flee or something like that.


Do you understand the difference between associated and disassociated mechanics?

Just because you can make an excuse for a mechanic doesn't make it associated.

---
All the problems surrounding the issue are so easy to avoid, one wonders why the devs didn't.

I have yet to see a good reason, in fact, I have yet to see anything positive about it.


I'm questioning 2 things:

1- That we are not flat-footed after our first regular turn arrives in the first round of combat if we use a Delay action.

2- That we are not flat-footed when the combat starts if we're already aware of the enemy and were able to prepare ourselfs.

Let's say we have 4 parties:

A - Adventuring PCs, on the road going from city A to city B, with torches.

O - Invisible, silent Orcs with True Seeing ready to ambush the PCs on the road.

E - Invisible, silent Elfs with True Seeing who tracked the Orcs and are ready to ambush the Orcs.

R - Master Drow Rogue with True Seeing in hiding, waiting to a kill the Elf captain.

#1- The invisible silent Elfs start to fight the invisible silent Orcs. They get to have their surprise round and all.

#2- After 2 rounds none of them if flat-footed anymore.

#3- The PCs enter the combat area unaware they steped in the middle of a invisible silent battlefield, but the Orcs and the Elfs are aware of the PCs since they saw them coming 10 rounds ago with torches.

#4- The PCs roll perception checks. Those who pass notice the signs of battle and realize they are in the middle of a combat, and those who don't are still unaware.

#5- This is when I'm not sure what happens next. I think the best way would be to make a new surprise round, assuming some PCs are gonna be surprised, and basically all the Orcs and Elfs won't be surprised.

#6- The Elfs and Orcs already had an initiative order, so it's best for them not to roll again to avoid any of them acting twice in a row before the others. The PCs who passed the perception check get to act on the surprise round, roll initiative, and are flat-footed until their turn arrives. The PCs who failed the perception don't get to act and are flat-footed. Everybody, the Elfs, Orcs and the PCs only get to have a standard action, even though the Orcs and Elfs were already in the middle of their combat. Time doesn't count during this new surprise round. This is the important part: The Orcs and Elfs were already in combat and aware of the PCs, so are they flat-footed until their turn arrives in this new surprise round? Will they be flat-footed agains the PCs and not agaist each other? I think the Elfs and the Orcs would not be flat-footed against the PCs, because they were aware of them for some time now.

#7- After the new surprise round happens, the PCs get their first regular round of combat and those who have not acted yet are still flat-footed until their first regular turn arrives. From then on the combat proceeds normally.

#8- At some point, the Master Drow Rogue comes out of hidding by killing the Elf captain. A new, thrid surprise round happens where everybody is flat-footed against the rogue since no one noticed him, and he's not flat-footed agains anybody, because he's been watching the whole thing for some time. His sneak attack in the Surprise round killed the Elf captain.

#9- The following round, everybody is still flat-footed against the Drow until they their turn arrives, but not against anybody else. The Drow acts first, collects the captain's head and vanishes. After that the combat goes on.

Is this how things would turn out if you start your combat in the middle of another combat, or if you start a combat before an ambush?


when a battle is going to happen. ALL potentially involved creatures roll initiative, regardless if they know that a battle is going to start.

this is the DM call. and dm, being the god of the universe, knowns things that the player characters don't.

p.e. highjacking your example above the way i would play it in the start:

the players of the game are the unaware adventuring party.

at some point, while they are walking, i ask for their initiative rolls. This is the moment that the two invisible forces clashed. no perception, no nothing. just their roll. and then continue on as nothing happened (ofc forcefully banning precast buffs at this point if some player decides to cheese with casting things out of the blue)

when the party reaches the point they can actually notice the fight, i ask for their perception. those who pass, play normally in the round that the ongoing battle rages on.
those who fail, are ignorant to whatever is happenning, and thus, still flat footed until they ACT concerning the battle (i.e. not obliviously walking as if nothing happened).

to clarify. the exact phrase used in flat footed description is:

Quote:
A character who has not yet acted during a combat is flat-footed, unable to react normally to the situation

that differs, imo, from "when your initiative count comes up for the first time". You actually need to ACT concerning the battle.

so, walking away, or talking with a villager or even twiddling your rapier around your thumbs, is (in my opinion) not "acting in a combat" and until you notice things, and reAct appropriatly then you are flatfooted.


The problem is when players act appropriately before the so-called start of combat.

I.E. the PCs are stalking a group of goblins they saw from mile or so distant. The PCs know combat is coming and they are prepared for ot, but being so far off, the counting of rounds is pointless just yet. The goblins later end up geting lucky and notice the PCs before the PCs are in combat range, and both groups continue advancing forward.

At what point does the first round of combat come up? Who would count as flat footed and why?


GM DarkLightHitomi wrote:

The problem is when players act appropriately before the so-called start of combat.

I.E. the PCs are stalking a group of goblins they saw from mile or so distant. The PCs know combat is coming and they are prepared for ot, but being so far off, the counting of rounds is pointless just yet. The goblins later end up geting lucky and notice the PCs before the PCs are in combat range, and both groups continue advancing forward.

At what point does the first round of combat come up? Who would count as flat footed and why?

If neither side decides to attack, both knowing they are there, whoever wins initiative goes first. The system works fine as is.

Say the players finally are tired of just following them, and decide to attack thinking they still have surprise. But those sneaky goblins did know they were being followed and were watching for the changes in behaviour that signal a change from following to attacking. The goblins then spring a trap on the surprised characters. (Player initiated but goblins win initiative).

The goblins, knowing there are far more of them back at their camp, keep going along content to be followed until they have overwhelming odds. Finally near their camp, the goblins decide to start a fight knowing their reinforcements will quickly come running once they hear sounds of battle. Noticing the smirks the goblins begin to give each other, and the slight adjustments and reaching towards weapons, the characters open fire. Almost without sound, arrows silence all the goblins. (Goblins initiate, characters win initiative).

I can continue to write a decent narrative for any possible initiative situation there. Until the dice let me know what has/is actually happening, I do not have a preconceived scenario that the dice MUST follow. A lot of the problem, to me, seems to be that you want to determine what has happened, and then roll dice, and run into visualization issues when what the dice determine don't mesh with what you were expecting.

I am also a much bigger fan of incorporating skills into it as well. Let the goblins make bluff checks to lure the PCs into a trap. If they succeed, goblins get a surprise round. If they fail, they don't. Perhaps an enterprising PC who speaks goblin decides to talk to them for a bit, providing a distraction for the others to set up an ambush. BLuff for the PC. Incorporating skills into the situation often leads to much more interesting results. It often is not RAW though. It is pathfinders handling of skills that has left me the most disappointed.

In regards to the bell scenario. Is it a countdown to a bell, where both have to truly prepare knowing exactly when the bell is, or is it both standing around waiting on the bell that could be at any moment.

In the first scenario, what tends to work most thematically and allows for all the scenarios people usually want, is to start initiative, and then the combatants ready actions. At that point initiative doesn't matter, it all becomes reading the opponent and readying the proper action. The downside to this is it can lead to a bit more metagaming, and can be difficult to manage with lots of combatants involved, and so simply rolling initiative at the bell is good enough usually.

In the second scenario, normal rules work just fine. Yes they are both waiting for the bell, but unsure of exactly when it will be, yes one of them will react faster and get that first quick hit in. Having been in exactly this sort of situation the rules model it well enough.


My beef pretty much boils down to a duel with a rogue. I'm a fighter, staring at the rogue, we're both inside a arena with no place to hide waiting for the bell to ring to start the fight. Even if I'm fully mentally prepared for the fight, if I lose initiative, i'm still flat-footed agains the rogue, who now gets to have a full action instead of just a standard on a surprise round, so it's even worse. I have a very hard time agreeing with that.

If you are aware of the enemy for some time, I really think you should not be flat-footed against it. You should only get flat-footed if he attacks you by surprise, or right after you've become aware of him and before you had a chance to act.


The rules work or don't work depending on the GM.

If the GM says combat starts and then both sides have to move into range, then it works fine.

But when the GM says "everybody knows a fight is coming. Everybody moves up, now that everybody is in range, now we can start combat, oh and despite knowing that combat is coming, you all get the exact same penalty as if you were surprised." And this penalty doesn't depend on the characters or the situation, it depends entirely on a metagame element, namely, the GM's whim. That is the problem, it should not depend on a whim, it should depend on something in the game world, such as surprise, or inability to respond effectively, but it doesn't.

Players should be able to take any bonus or penalty and tie it to something in game that gets represented as that abstract number, all before the dice actually get rolled. But there is nothing in game to tie to the start of combat, we know the latest it can be started, but not the earliest, nor even a suggestion, merely at one point it is clear that being in combat is expected, with no reference to when the combat should have started (thus you get an implied "sometime before point X.")

As for dice, they tell me whether an attempted action succeeds or fails, and by what margin. I don't need dice to determine what a character's actions are going to be (mostly because that stops roleplaying and replaces it with storytelling gaming. They are different things.)

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